Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
38.80070 15900 2.440 SEA Russell Wilson 23.95800 8700 Tyler Lockett 14.84270 7200
39.70089 17300 2.295 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.54050 9200 Tyreek Hill 15.16039 8100
32.49215 14200 2.288 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.63215 8300 Marquise Brown 10.86000 5900
31.49725 14000 2.250 CIN Joe Burrow 18.68500 7600 Tyler Boyd 12.81225 6400
33.58501 15000 2.239 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.30450 7500 A.J. Brown 13.28051 7500
31.65991 14300 2.214 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.56955 6600 George Kittle 14.09036 7700
38.62951 17500 2.207 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.76450 8400 Davante Adams 17.86501 9100
33.77402 15300 BUF Josh Allen 20.12075 8200 Stefon Diggs 13.65327 7100
33.00380 15100 2.186 LAC Justin Herbert 18.97080 7700 Keenan Allen 14.03300 7400
30.28246 14100 2.148 LV Derek Carr 18.35550 7300 Darren Waller 11.92696 6800
31.30300 14800 2.115 DET Matthew Stafford 17.74475 7200 Kenny Golladay 13.55825 7600
27.43300 13000 2.110 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.45900 Jarvis Landry 9.97400 5800
29.86115 14800 2.018 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.15590 7100 Adam Thielen 13.70525 7700
29.32550 14600 2.009 LAR Jared Goff 17.01500 7300 Cooper Kupp 12.31050 7300
25.88465 12900 2.007 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.54390 6800 DeVante Parker 10.34075 6100
26.31940 13600 1.935 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.74240 7100 JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.57700 6500
23.49660 12500 1.880 NE Cam Newton 17.16260 7400 N’Keal Harry 6.33400 5100
22.21855 12100 1.836 CHI Nick Foles 14.95705 6700 Jimmy Graham 7.26150 5400
22.66070 12600 1.798 DEN Drew Lock 13.76970 7000 Jerry Jeudy 8.89100 5600
27.04215 16200 1.669 NO Drew Brees 16.84090 7600 Michael Thomas 10.20125 8600
20.71215 12800 1.618 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.35940 6500 Jamison Crowder 8.35275 6300
11.20900 11500 0.975 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.65700 6000 T.Y. Hilton 9.55200 5500

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
77.12037 32400 2.380 SEA Russell Wilson 23.95800 8700 Tyler Lockett 14.842696 7200
8700 DK Metcalf 14.361670 7800
78.37989 34400 2.278 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.54050 9200 Tyreek Hill 15.160391 8100
9200 Travis Kelce 14.138500 7900
60.98896 26800 2.276 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.56955 6600 George Kittle 14.090363 7700
6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.759500 5900
61.17425 27600 2.216 CIN Joe Burrow 18.68500 7600 Tyler Boyd 12.812250 6400
7600 Tee Higgins 10.992000 6000
63.38727 28800 2.201 BUF Josh Allen 20.12075 8200 Stefon Diggs 13.653267 7100
8200 Cole Beasley 9.492500 5300
64.77680 29500 2.196 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.63215 8300 Marquise Brown 10.860000 5900
8300 Mark Andrews 10.652500 7000
62.81705 28600 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.30450 7500 A.J. Brown 13.280513 7500
7500 Jonnu Smith 8.927539 6100
57.25421 26400 2.169 LV Derek Carr 18.35550 7300 Darren Waller 11.926964 6800
7300 Nelson Agholor 8.616250 5000
61.49110 28700 2.143 LAC Justin Herbert 18.97080 7700 Keenan Allen 14.033000 7400
7700 Mike Williams 9.516500 5900
66.95826 31800 2.106 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.76450 8400 Davante Adams 17.865012 9100
8400 Robert Tonyan 7.564250 5900
53.13625 25700 2.068 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.45900 7200 Jarvis Landry 9.974000 5800
7200 Rashard Higgins 8.244250 5500
58.51755 28500 2.053 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.15590 7100 Adam Thielen 13.705250 7700
7100 Justin Jefferson 12.500500 6600
57.38907 28000 2.050 DET Matthew Stafford 17.74475 7200 Kenny Golladay 13.558246 7600
7200 T.J. Hockenson 8.341323 6000
58.57425 28900 2.027 LAR Jared Goff 17.01500 7300 Cooper Kupp 12.310500 7300
7300 Robert Woods 12.233750 7000
52.61055 26700 1.970 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.74240 7100 JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.577000 6500
7100 Chase Claypool 9.548750 6000
48.64545 25200 1.930 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.54390 6800 DeVante Parker 10.340750 6100
6800 Mike Gesicki 7.216905 5500
46.69220 24400 1.914 NE Cam Newton 17.16260 7400 N’Keal Harry 6.334000 5100
7400 Jakobi Meyers 6.033000 4500
44.23560 23900 1.851 CHI Nick Foles 14.95705 6700 Jimmy Graham 7.261500 5400
6700 Anthony Miller 7.060000 5100
52.35526 29600 1.769 NO Drew Brees 16.84090 7600 Michael Thomas 10.201250 8600
7600 Jared Cook 8.472215 5800
44.17466 25300 1.746 DEN Drew Lock 13.76970 7000 Jerry Jeudy 8.891000 5600
7000 Noah Fant 7.744257 5700
38.90505 24200 1.608 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.35940 6500 Jamison Crowder 8.352750 6300
6500 Denzel Mims 5.833500 4900
21.17200 22800 0.929 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.65700 6000 T.Y. Hilton 9.552000 5500
6000 Trey Burton 8.306000 5300

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
106.30412 46000 2.311 SEA Russell Wilson 23.95800 8700 Tyler Lockett 14.842696 7200
8700 DK Metcalf 14.361670 7800
8700 Greg Olsen 5.225750 4900
87.20001 38400 2.271 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.56955 6600 George Kittle 14.090363 7700
6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.759500 5900
6600 Kendrick Bourne 8.641500 5000
109.98639 49000 2.245 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.54050 9200 Tyreek Hill 15.160391 8100
9200 Travis Kelce 14.138500 7900
9200 Mecole Hardman 7.066000 5400
91.93705 41500 2.215 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.30450 7500 A.J. Brown 13.280513 7500
7500 Jonnu Smith 8.927539 6100
7500 Corey Davis 8.815500 5400
89.34500 41000 2.179 CIN Joe Burrow 18.68500 7600 Tyler Boyd 12.812250 6400
7600 Tee Higgins 10.992000 6000
7600 A.J. Green 9.485750 5800
83.74071 38800 2.158 LV Derek Carr 18.35550 7300 Darren Waller 11.926964 6800
7300 Nelson Agholor 8.616250 5000
7300 Hunter Renfrow 8.131000 5100
91.49977 42600 2.148 BUF Josh Allen 20.12075 8200 Stefon Diggs 13.653267 7100
8200 Cole Beasley 9.492500 5300
8200 John Brown 7.991750 5600
89.96161 42000 2.142 LAC Justin Herbert 18.97080 7700 Keenan Allen 14.033000 7400
7700 Mike Williams 9.516500 5900
7700 Hunter Henry 9.499708 5600
90.56945 42300 2.141 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.63215 8300 Marquise Brown 10.860000 5900
8300 Mark Andrews 10.652500 7000
8300 Miles Boykin 4.160500 4500
95.23951 45300 2.102 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.76450 8400 Davante Adams 17.865012 9100
8400 Robert Tonyan 7.564250 5900
8400 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.516750 5100
77.85525 37900 2.054 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.45900 7200 Jarvis Landry 9.974000 5800
7200 Rashard Higgins 8.244250 5500
7200 Harrison Bryant 7.260000 5000
81.59907 40100 2.035 DET Matthew Stafford 17.74475 7200 Kenny Golladay 13.558246 7600
7200 T.J. Hockenson 8.341323 6000
7200 Danny Amendola 6.465250 4900
79.28520 40000 1.982 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.15590 7100 Adam Thielen 13.705250 7700
7100 Justin Jefferson 12.500500 6600
7100 Kyle Rudolph 4.611750 4400
82.14525 41900 1.961 LAR Jared Goff 17.01500 7300 Cooper Kupp 12.310500 7300
7300 Robert Woods 12.233750 7000
7300 Tyler Higbee 6.556000 5700
77.93345 40000 1.948 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.74240 7100 JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.577000 6500
7100 Chase Claypool 9.548750 6000
7100 Diontae Johnson 8.580500 6200
71.21335 37200 1.914 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.54390 6800 DeVante Parker 10.340750 6100
6800 Mike Gesicki 7.216905 5500
6800 Preston Williams 7.024000 5200
69.47580 36700 1.893 NE Cam Newton 17.16260 7400 N’Keal Harry 6.334000 5100
7400 Jakobi Meyers 6.033000 4500
7400 Damiere Byrd 5.621000 4900
64.76265 35300 1.835 CHI Nick Foles 14.95705 6700 Jimmy Graham 7.261500 5400
6700 Anthony Miller 7.060000 5100
6700 Cordarrelle Patterson 5.570000 4700
76.37516 42500 1.797 NO Drew Brees 16.84090 7600 Michael Thomas 10.201250 8600
7600 Jared Cook 8.472215 5800
7600 Tre’Quan Smith 7.179000 5300
64.16361 37700 1.702 DEN Drew Lock 13.76970 7000 Jerry Jeudy 8.891000 5600
7000 Noah Fant 7.744257 5700
7000 Tim Patrick 6.219250 5400
56.79270 35700 1.591 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.35940 6500 Jamison Crowder 8.352750 6300
6500 Denzel Mims 5.833500 4900
6500 Breshad Perriman 5.528250 5000
30.82300 34000 0.907 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.65700 6000 T.Y. Hilton 9.552000 5500
6000 Trey Burton 8.306000 5300
6000 Zach Pascal 7.994000 5200

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
33.64168 11100 3.031 LV Derek Carr 18.63050 5500 Darren Waller 15.01118 5600
42.32928 14800 2.860 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.62800 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.70128 6700
41.95639 14900 2.816 SEA Russell Wilson 24.04550 7800 Tyler Lockett 17.91089 7100
34.85953 12400 2.811 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.74455 5400 George Kittle 17.11498 7000
36.78255 13100 2.808 LAC Justin Herbert 19.17080 6900 Keenan Allen 17.61175 6200
25.27785 9100 2.778 NE Cam Newton 17.25260 5700 N’Keal Harry 8.02525 3400
35.04725 12800 2.738 CIN Joe Burrow 19.03500 6200 Tyler Boyd 16.01225 6600
37.12528 13800 2.690 BUF Josh Allen 20.47075 7000 Stefon Diggs 16.65453 6800
36.09553 13700 2.635 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.47950 6800 A.J. Brown 15.61603 6900
34.12749 13000 2.625 DET Matthew Stafford 17.91975 6400 Kenny Golladay 16.20774 6600
42.59052 16400 2.597 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.86450 7600 Davante Adams 21.72602 8800
35.03715 13500 2.595 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.88215 7400 Marquise Brown 13.15500 6100
29.80550 11700 2.547 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.54400 6100 Jarvis Landry 12.26150 5600
28.19090 11300 2.495 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.67390 5600 DeVante Parker 12.51700 5700
32.34425 13000 2.488 LAR Jared Goff 17.21500 6500 Cooper Kupp 15.12925 6500
32.82490 13200 2.487 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.33090 6000 Adam Thielen 16.49400 7200
24.82195 10100 2.458 DEN Drew Lock 13.96970 5300 Jerry Jeudy 10.85225 4800
28.92190 12000 2.410 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.81990 6600 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.10200 5400
24.19105 10400 2.326 CHI Nick Foles 15.09705 5800 Jimmy Graham 9.09400 4600
29.79840 13600 2.191 NO Drew Brees 16.99090 6300 Michael Thomas 12.80750 7300
22.80965 10600 2.152 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.45940 4800 Jamison Crowder 10.35025 5800
13.37900 9400 1.423 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.71700 4500 T.Y. Hilton 11.66200 4900

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
62.67093 21300 2.942 LV Derek Carr 18.63050 5500 Darren Waller 15.011178 5600
5500 Nelson Agholor 10.398750 4700
84.18578 29500 2.854 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.62800 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.701281 6700
8100 Travis Kelce 17.228500 6600
66.50858 23600 2.818 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.74455 5400 George Kittle 17.114976 7000
5400 Brandon Aiyuk 13.904500 5800
67.66027 24200 2.796 LAC Justin Herbert 19.17080 6900 Keenan Allen 17.611750 6200
6900 Hunter Henry 11.706916 4200
83.47848 30200 2.764 SEA Russell Wilson 24.04550 7800 Tyler Lockett 17.910892 7100
7800 DK Metcalf 17.476590 7500
67.49175 24600 2.744 CIN Joe Burrow 19.03500 6200 Tyler Boyd 16.012250 6600
6200 Tee Higgins 13.409500 5600
50.00595 18300 2.733 NE Cam Newton 17.25260 5700 N’Keal Harry 8.025250 3400
5700 Jakobi Meyers 7.475500 3500
69.38978 26100 2.659 BUF Josh Allen 20.47075 7000 Stefon Diggs 16.654534 6800
7000 Cole Beasley 11.793750 5300
67.31178 25600 2.629 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.47950 6800 A.J. Brown 15.616025 6900
6800 Corey Davis 10.736750 5100
72.58802 27800 2.611 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.86450 7600 Davante Adams 21.726025 8800
7600 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.133000 3800
69.65180 26700 2.609 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.88215 7400 Marquise Brown 13.155000 6100
7400 Mark Andrews 12.732500 5800
57.30875 22000 2.605 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.54400 6100 Jarvis Landry 12.261500 5600
6100 Rashard Higgins 9.959250 4200
62.20689 24700 2.518 DET Matthew Stafford 17.91975 6400 Kenny Golladay 16.207743 6600
6400 T.J. Hockenson 10.159646 5300
64.36800 25800 2.495 LAR Jared Goff 17.21500 6500 Cooper Kupp 15.129250 6500
6500 Robert Woods 14.808750 6300
64.08630 25700 2.494 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.33090 6000 Adam Thielen 16.494000 7200
6000 Justin Jefferson 14.930500 6500
52.86611 21800 2.425 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.67390 5600 DeVante Parker 12.517000 5700
5600 Mike Gesicki 9.001309 4900
57.28555 23800 2.407 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.81990 6600 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.102000 5400
6600 Chase Claypool 11.543750 5200
48.36741 20100 2.406 DEN Drew Lock 13.96970 5300 Jerry Jeudy 10.852250 4800
5300 Noah Fant 9.575764 4700
48.15560 20500 2.349 CHI Nick Foles 15.09705 5800 Jimmy Graham 9.094000 4600
5800 Anthony Miller 8.867500 4300
56.80748 24300 2.338 NO Drew Brees 16.99090 6300 Michael Thomas 12.807500 7300
6300 Jared Cook 10.018179 4400
42.68505 18600 2.295 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.45940 4800 Jamison Crowder 10.350250 5800
4800 Denzel Mims 7.416000 3200
25.13200 17400 1.444 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.71700 4500 T.Y. Hilton 11.662000 4900
4500 Trey Burton 10.036000 3500

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
91.32243 30600 2.984 LV Derek Carr 18.63050 5500 Darren Waller 15.011178 5600
5500 Nelson Agholor 10.398750 4700
5500 Hunter Renfrow 10.021000 3800
94.62713 32500 2.912 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 17.74455 5400 George Kittle 17.114976 7000
5400 Brandon Aiyuk 13.904500 5800
5400 Kendrick Bourne 10.374000 3500
98.27500 35300 2.784 CIN Joe Burrow 19.03500 6200 Tyler Boyd 16.012250 6600
6200 Tee Higgins 13.409500 5600
6200 A.J. Green 11.748250 4500
117.25353 42300 2.772 KC Patrick Mahomes 24.62800 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.701281 6700
8100 Travis Kelce 17.228500 6600
8100 Mecole Hardman 8.439750 4700
98.00007 35500 2.761 LAC Justin Herbert 19.17080 6900 Keenan Allen 17.611750 6200
6900 Hunter Henry 11.706916 4200
6900 Mike Williams 11.169000 4400
114.08973 41600 2.743 SEA Russell Wilson 24.04550 7800 Tyler Lockett 17.910892 7100
7800 DK Metcalf 17.476590 7500
7800 Greg Olsen 6.565750 3600
98.47635 36500 2.698 TEN Ryan Tannehill 20.47950 6800 A.J. Brown 15.616025 6900
6800 Corey Davis 10.736750 5100
6800 Jonnu Smith 10.685078 4100
74.46455 27700 2.688 NE Cam Newton 17.25260 5700 N’Keal Harry 8.025250 3400
5700 Jakobi Meyers 7.475500 3500
5700 Damiere Byrd 7.206000 3700
83.43275 31300 2.666 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.54400 6100 Jarvis Landry 12.261500 5600
6100 Rashard Higgins 9.959250 4200
6100 Harrison Bryant 8.580000 3200
99.50603 37500 2.653 BUF Josh Allen 20.47075 7000 Stefon Diggs 16.654534 6800
7000 Cole Beasley 11.793750 5300
7000 John Brown 9.645500 4400
96.63570 37100 2.605 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.88215 7400 Marquise Brown 13.155000 6100
7400 Mark Andrews 12.732500 5800
7400 Miles Boykin 5.101750 3000
102.52927 39700 2.583 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.86450 7600 Davante Adams 21.726025 8800
7600 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.133000 3800
7600 Robert Tonyan 9.076750 4300
88.25564 34400 2.566 DET Matthew Stafford 17.91975 6400 Kenny Golladay 16.207743 6600
6400 T.J. Hockenson 10.159646 5300
6400 Danny Amendola 8.129000 3300
86.15895 35100 2.455 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.33090 6000 Adam Thielen 16.494000 7200
6000 Justin Jefferson 14.930500 6500
6000 Kyle Rudolph 5.741750 3400
89.74525 36800 2.439 LAR Jared Goff 17.21500 6500 Cooper Kupp 15.129250 6500
6500 Robert Woods 14.808750 6300
6500 Tyler Higbee 8.162250 4500
77.09401 31700 2.432 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 15.67390 5600 DeVante Parker 12.517000 5700
5600 Mike Gesicki 9.001309 4900
5600 Preston Williams 8.554000 4300
69.74765 29500 2.364 CHI Nick Foles 15.09705 5800 Jimmy Graham 9.094000 4600
5800 Anthony Miller 8.867500 4300
5800 Cordarrelle Patterson 6.495000 3200
84.83720 35900 2.363 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 16.81990 6600 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.102000 5400
6600 Chase Claypool 11.543750 5200
6600 Diontae Johnson 10.731750 5500
82.62113 35300 2.341 NO Drew Brees 16.99090 6300 Michael Thomas 12.807500 7300
6300 Jared Cook 10.018179 4400
6300 Tre’Quan Smith 8.822750 4700
70.10886 30100 2.329 DEN Drew Lock 13.96970 5300 Jerry Jeudy 10.852250 4800
5300 Noah Fant 9.575764 4700
5300 Tim Patrick 7.771750 4700
61.96020 27000 2.295 NYJ Sam Darnold 12.45940 4800 Jamison Crowder 10.350250 5800
4800 Denzel Mims 7.416000 3200
4800 Breshad Perriman 6.815750 3600
36.55050 26400 1.384 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.71700 4500 T.Y. Hilton 11.662000 4900
4500 Trey Burton 10.036000 3500
4500 Zach Pascal 9.701500 4500

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.